The 2002 Long Range Economic and Population Forecasts
For Maine and its Regions 2000-2025
Center for Business and Economic Research
University of Southern Maine
UPDATED, APRIL 2002
Charles S. Colgan
Professor of Public Policy and Management
Edmund S. Muskie School of Public Service and
Senior Research Associate, Center for Business and Economic Research
Data are available in either Microsoft Excel or in Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) files.
ACROBAT FILE: Annual Employment Pop 1999-2025.PDF Employment Projections by Broad Industry 2000-2025. Includes Total Population
EXCEL FILE: Employment 1999-2025 Annual.xls Same as above file but in Microsoft Excel
ACROBAT FILE: Population by 5yr Age Groups.PDF Population for each region by 5 year age groups. Total population only.
EXCEL FILE Pop by 5yr Ages 1990-2025.xls Same as above file in Microsoft Excel. Also includes total population plus male and female populations.
Forecast Information
The forecasts are prepared for 9 county or multi-county regions plus the state as a whole. Each of the files contains all ten regions The regions are:
Aroostook
Hancock-Washington
Penobscot-Piscataquis
Kennebec-Somerset
Waldo-Knox
Lincoln-Sagadahoc
Cumberland
Androscoggin-Franklin-Oxford
York
Sum of Regions (Maine)
The forecasts are currently available to 2025. Data is presented for 2000-2025.
Employment is available for the following sectors. The data is the Bureau of Economic Analysis "Total Employment" concept, which includes both wage and salary employment and proprietor's (self-) employment. As such, the figures reported are larger than those reported by the Maine Department of Labor employment series.
Total Regional Employment
Manufacturing
Durable Goods
Nondurable goods
Non-Manufacturing
Construction
Transportation & Public Utilites
Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Services
Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry Services
Government
State and Local
Federal Civilian
Military
Farm
Population data contains population forecasts for five year age groups from 0-4 to 85+. from 2000-2025. Note that the population data is NOT reconciled with the 2000 Census, so figures for 2000 may not match official Census figures.
Please cite these forecasts as:
University of Southern Maine, Center for Business and Economic Research
2002 Long Range Employment and Population Forecasts.
Forecast Notes
These forecasts are prepared using Policy Insight Models developed by Regional Economic Models Inc. (REMI) of Amherst Mass. REMI models are widely used throughout the United States to conduct regional economic forecasting and analysis. For more information about REMI, see www.remi.com.
This forecast was prepared in February-April, 2002. The last year of history is 1999. Employment data for each region are updated to 2000 and 2001 for each region using the Maine Department of Labor data on wage and salary employment.
Outlook Summary
The CBER forecasts are long-term forecasts which generally do not reflect changes in the business cycle. This outlook shows the effects of the relatively brief recession of 2001-2002. No additional recession is forecast, since beyond the current period the model driver is long term growth trends rather than short term business cycle factors. Recessions are certain to appear at some point. While some periods will show significantly slower or even negative growth, but these will be offset by periods of recovery. On average over the decade, the forecast should indicate long-term trends. Highly cyclical industries, such as construction, thus show less variability from year to year than they actually experience.
A major issue in these forecasts is the rate of population growth in Maine. These forecasts take into account somewhat more rapid in-migration to Maine than earlier forecasts. The Bureau of the Census somewhat under-estimated migration to Maine during the 1990s. New trends were estimated using the 2000 Census and preliminary 2001 population estimates, and projected forward. The result is that in-migration to Maine and the regions is forecast to be somewhat faster than occurred in the 1990s, but still slower than in the 1970s or 1980s.
A major component of inmigration will be people between 65
and 75 who retire to Maine, particularly to coastal regions. Growth in the retired
population is estimated to grow at approximately half the rate of national growth in this
population over the period 2005-2025, essentially the period when the bulk of the baby
boom generation retires. Growth in the retirement population is concetrated in
coastal regions; inland regions see little or no in-migration in this population group.